The War on Water

Water is vital for life; without it, we cannot survive. According to Water for the People, 80% of climate disasters are tied to water[1], whether from floods or droughts. These disasters have increased fivefold in the last 50 years, making water either dangerously abundant or scarce. As climate disasters increase, they parallel the struggle for water security, with nations and people urgently trying to protect this vital resource and, therefore, using violence as a solution.

Since the start of the millennium, droughts have surged by 29%, triggering widespread agricultural collapses, food scarcities, and soaring prices. For instance, the East African drought of 2010-2011 left over 12 million people dependent on food aid[2]. As our climate deteriorates and extreme weather events increase, such scenarios are projected to become the norm, placing millions of vulnerable people at risk of starvation, dehydration, and disease, with international aid providing only short-term solutions.

Beyond causing water scarcity, droughts lead to wildfires, land degradation, and significant economic losses, particularly in areas such as the Western U.S., Southern Europe, and Australia. One of the largest wildfires in California to date was the August complex fires in 2020, which burned 1,032,648 hectares. However, the deadliest was the 2018 Camp Buttle, which had 103 fatal casualties. Due to constant water scarcity, it is feared wildfires in the future will become more deadly and destructive. Climate change is anticipated to exacerbate both the frequency and severity of droughts, further straining global food and water supplies.

For the past few years, there has been a contentious dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), constructed on the Blue Nile, directly impacting Sudan and Egypt. Egypt, heavily reliant on the Nile for 90% of its freshwater[3], fears the dam will diminish the freshwater supply and weaken agriculture. On the other hand, Sudan sees potential benefits for agriculture and hydropower, and cautiously supports the idea. This dispute is a stark reminder of the geopolitical implications of water scarcity. Although there have been years of diplomatic talks between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan led by the African Union, they have been mainly unsuccessful to date.

Despite the lack of agreement, Ethiopia has started filling the dam. As the country faces famine due to constant droughts, it continues to do so despite the lack of a binding agreement, intensifying Egypt's concerns. Many other global powers, such as the USA and China, have gotten involved, bringing worldwide attention to this issue. Years of failed diplomacy and involvement from global powers underscore the urgency for cooperation to avoid further conflict and ensure sustainable water management in the region.

Amid rising tensions, Ethiopia called Egypt to abandon its "aggressive stance" regarding a contested Nile dam. Egypt has accused Ethiopia of breaching international law by proceeding with the dam's filling without a prior agreement, while Ethiopia argues that the project is essential for its development. Egypt and Sudan are concerned about potential risks to their water resources, and diplomatic initiatives have not succeeded. The situation deteriorated further following Egypt's military agreement with Somalia, prompting Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to caution against foreign incursions.

Afghanistan's potential for a "water war" arises from disputes over shared water resources with neighbouring Iran and Pakistan. This war could affect millions of people over a vital human resource, putting many in a humanitarian crisis. The tensions arise from two rivers: the Helmand and Kabul rivers. 

The Helmand River is a crucial water source between Afghanistan and Iran and has been the face of tension when, in May 2023, gunfire broke out between the border over water access to the river[4]. Despite a 1973 treaty that guaranteed Iran a fixed annual water supply[5]. Afghanistan's recent projects, such as the Kamal Khan Dam, have intensified tensions. Iran relies on the Helmand River for agriculture and the survival of the Hamoun Wetlands, which have suffered due to reduced water flow, leading to environmental damage and potential displacement of local communities. 

Afghanistan's plans will also affect its neighbours in Central Asia like Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, experiencing drying rivers, shrinking water bodies like the Aral Sea, and escalating tensions over shared water resources. The crisis stems from inefficient agricultural practices, particularly cotton farming, and poor Soviet-era water management. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which depend on the Amu Darya for agriculture and drinking water, are particularly worried about the potential reduction in water flow. While diplomatic responses have been cautious so far, the canal project has raised fears of increased competition over water, further complicating an already strained regional situation.

Afghanistan's water disputes with Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asia could trigger a "water war" affecting millions. Afghan projects on key rivers have escalated tensions, threatening regional water supplies and agriculture.

However, some nations in water-scarce regions with the potential for water wars have avoided this by relying on different methods for gaining fresh water. They provide a blueprint for securing fresh water for the population and agriculture, allowing water wars not to occur in the future. One example is Saudi Arabia, currently the largest user of desalination, converting seawater into drinking water due to its lack of freshwater sources and arid climate. It produces around 20% of the world's desalinated water[6], supporting its growing population and industries. Therefore, Saudi Arabia does not need to worry about keeping its water sources safe as it has the necessary facilities to compensate. The issue is that Saudi Arabia is very wealthy and can afford this large amount of technology, which many other countries cannot. Poorer nations rely more heavily on shared water sources as they cannot afford such processes for fresh waters, resulting in water wars.

The UN understands the issue and has made efforts to support governments and communities in developing countries. While 45% of countries are on track to achieve their drinking-water coverage targets, only 25% are on track to achieve their sanitation targets[7]. The UN has pushed for more funding so communities affected by climate change can make adequate progress in protecting their citizens. With recent climate summits, more nations have felt the pressure of climate change and have put more significant effort into slowing climate change down to prevent disasters and water scarcity to ensure conflicts do not occur over these resources.

Climate change and geopolitical conflicts are set to influence future water disputes, especially for nations like Egypt and Afghanistan. As global populations expand and the need for water resources rises, tensions may worsen, particularly in areas that lack sufficient water. The intensifying effects of climate change will result in more extreme weather patterns, including droughts and floods. These conditions place tremendous pressure on countries as the competition for essential water sources intensifies, prompting more drastic measures to safeguard these resources. Although the UN is finding solutions and supporting developing nations to avoid such water wars without stopping climate change, water scarcity will only worsen.