Europe's military response to growing international tensions

 Europe and its allies are preparing for war.

The Russo-Ukrainian war has caused Europe to respond by growing militarily and turning to its allies—and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—to prepare for an attack or a potential war. Many ex-Soviet states fear Russia's aggression and potential advancement, causing a more significant military response, with drastic modernisation in their military at a rate unseen for decades. The West is following, although at a slower pace. It’s clear that the Russo-Ukrainian war is forcing hasty responses in many parts of the world.

Those closest to the conflict have significantly increased their defence budgets, reflecting the growing uncertainty across Europe and their desire to protect their borders. Countries, especially in Eastern Europe, have increased their defence budgets and signed multiple deals to purchase the latest military equipment. Some states have made subtle changes, whereas others have been more aggressive. Poland has seen the most drastic change compared to other European nations.

Poland's fear of Russia is due to their long history of conflict and occupation. In the 19th century, Poland was occupied by Imperial Russia. They frequently revolted in demand of their independence, which was always crushed with violent brutality from the Russians. Once they received their independence after World War I, they were invaded by Russia in 1919 and again, in 1921, they successfully defended their homeland. In 1939 Nazi Germany invaded Poland's west flank, and the Russians invaded its eastern border. Even after the war, they were under Communist Russia's control; it was only in 1989 that they were free from Russian control and gained their independence[1]. This causes significant fears of another potential Russian occupation, as it has happened many times in history. Since the start of the Russia-Ukrainian war, Poland has increased its military capabilities to any other European nation. By boarding Belarus and Ukraine, it fears that if Russia succeeds in its war against Ukraine, it will potentially be the next victim of Russia. Another potential Russian takeover will cause Poland to lose their independence once again to Russia.

Prior to 2022, Poland was already spending 2.2% of its budget on defence, the third highest of NATO[2]. In 2023, it increased to 4%, the highest in NATO and the highest in expenditure on military equipment of over 50%[3]. The country has created high goals such as increasing the land force to 300,000 and buying further military equipment from the US and Germany, including tanks and jets. In 2024, nearly 150 contracts were signed[4]. The challenge Poland faces in continuing its defence modernisation plan is the cost, which will increase its public debt. However, Poland is determined to ensure national security.

A similar fear is felt strongly in ex-Soviet states in response to Putin’s statement of his desire to retake former countries of the Soviet Union. For instance, Czechia has increased its defence budget by CZK166.8 billion (2.09% GDP)[5] and has bought multiple new pieces of equipment from the US, such as Hellfire missiles and APKWS. Hungary has moved its Defence systems to the east, and many Baltic countries have also bought new military equipment—the fear of ‘being next’ after Ukraine is clear.

Further evidence of Europe's determined response to growing international tensions is in the defence spending of NATO countries. NATO members are required to spend 2% of their GDP on defence; however, the majority of NATO members have historically not met this target. In 2021, only six members out of the thirty-two allies met the target. In 2024, this number rose to twenty-three.

Also, in 2024, the largest NATO exercise occurred since the Cold War. It involved 32 countries with over 90,000 personnel, 1,100+ combat vehicles, 50+ naval assets and 80+ air platforms. The training was due to, as the Supreme Allied Commander of Europe, General Christopher G. Cavoli, quoted, “a clear demonstration of our unity, strength and determination to protect each other, our values and the rules-based international order.” The exercise was meant to demonstrate NATO's ability to cooperate quickly and efficiently and to defend its members’ territory, which, judging by Russia’s disapproving response, was a success, “Of course, it is a threat to us; that is how we treat it, and we are constantly taking appropriate measures to deal with it," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.[6]

NATO also has two new members who have been neutral for many decades: Sweden and Finland. Their decision to join the alliance highlights Europe's views and fears of Russia, showing that Europe is responding far more militarily to International and domestic tensions.

Sweden applied for NATO membership after the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 but was faced with delay due to Hungary and Turkey blocking the membership[7]. After 200 years of non-alignment, Sweden joined NATO on the 7th of March, 2024, which shows a clear mindset change in Europe. By joining NATO, Sweden became a party to a collective defense agreement, laid down in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which states that if a “NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, every other member of the Alliance will consider this act an attack against all members.”[8] Sweden is now a member of 32 countries that have pledged to support each other in case of an attack. This decision has been praised in Europe, but Russia vowed to take an unspecified military decision in response to Sweden joining NATO.[9]

Finland joined NATO a year before Sweden due to membership challenges. Finland sought NATO membership for reasons similar to Sweden's, primarily because it shares a long border with Russia. Support among Finns for joining NATO surged from ⅓ to 80% in 2022, indicating that both the public and government perceived a threat from Russia. Russia expressed dissatisfaction with this decision. Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister stated, "If the forces and resources of other NATO members are deployed in Finland, we will take additional measures to ensure Russia's military security effectively." This stems from Russia's reluctance to share a border with a NATO member, as any aggression would have serious repercussions for the entire organisation.

Europe has responded swiftly to rising tensions, particularly with Russia, by boosting defence budgets and military acquisitions. The uncertainty surrounding Europe's aid to Ukraine lies in the fact that, despite sending millions of dollars worth of equipment, Ukraine's army is struggling in strength. This presents a dilemma for Europeans, as addressing this would require a direct declaration of war, something Europe is keen to avoid. Consequently, Ukraine is facing significant challenges and has a considerable risk of losing, even with ongoing aid, which represents the worst-case scenario. NATO's two new members and the most important military exercise conducted since the Cold War signal readiness against threats and underscore concerns regarding Russia's actions.

[1]PACZKOWSKI, A. (2002). POLISH-SOVIET RELATIONS 1944-1989: THE LIMITS OF AUTONOMY. Russian History, [online] 29(2/4), pp.277–300. Available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/24660788.

[2] data.worldbank.org. (n.d.). Military expenditure (% of GDP) - Poland | Data. [online] Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=PL.

[3] Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2024). (2014). [online] NATO, Belgium : NATO, pp.1–17. Available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_226465.htm [Accessed 7 Mar. 2025].

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[4] Jones, P. (2023). Poland Becomes a Defense Colossus. [online] CEPA. Available at: https://cepa.org/article/poland-becomes-a-defense-colossus/.

[5] Bisaccio, D. and Bisaccio, D. (2025). Czech Defense Budget Now Over 2 Percent of GDP, MoD Says - Defense Security Monitor. [online] Defense Security Monitor. Available at: https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/2025/01/08/czech-defense-budget-now-over-2-percent-of-gdp-mod-says/ [Accessed 7 Mar. 2025].

[6] AFP (2024). Russia Sees NATO as ‘Threat,’ Kremlin Says Amid Drills. [online] The Moscow Times. Available at: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/01/31/russia-sees-nato-as-threat-kremlin-says-amid-drills-a83927

[7] Gozzi, L. (2024). Sweden formally joins Nato military alliance. BBC News. [online] 7 Mar. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68506223.

[8] NATO (2023). Défense collective - Article 5. [online] NATO. Available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/fr/natohq/topics_110496.htm?selectedLocale=en.

[9] Gozzi, L. (2024). Sweden formally joins Nato military alliance. BBC News. [online] 7 Mar. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68506223.